12:20 · Kinsley462m
- 5Swift ChicoModel pick2/5 wins35.8%Fair 2.80
- 2Millroad Fifi0/7 wins17.6%Fair 5.69
- 3Got The Ballymac2/10 wins16.5%Fair 6.05
Experimental · not yet validated · races where the model's top dog stands out most
| Method on 4,285 unseen races | Top pick won | Score (lower is better) |
|---|---|---|
| This model | 23.9% | 1.6978 |
| Equal chance | 18.1% | 1.7152 |
| Trap draw only | 20.1% | 1.7129 |
| Win rate only | 18.8% | 1.7152 |
| Previous model (4 form inputs) | 22.3% | 1.7067 |
Win chances from our form model (form-logit-v2-2026-10-25), trained on 14,841 past races, saved before each race and never changed. The comparison uses later races the model never saw (2026-08-30 to 2026-10-24); it isn't a proofed betting record. Score is log loss: how surprised each method was by the actual winners.
18+ | Tips are based on our statistical model and past performance, not guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org