Trap win bias

424 completed cards · last 42 days

Card win rate by trap

Share of cards where each trap had the most winners over the last 42 days. A fair share is 16.7%, so a bar well above that is the bias. Tied cards are shared.

22%

18%

16%

17%

12%

15%

Today's cards

Each trap's chance of winning a race on the card, from the model. 16.7% is exactly chance with six runners. Experimental, not validated. Races without model figures use equal runner chances.

Harlow10:32 · 14 races · 14 run

16.1%

17.0%

18.2%

14.1%

15.1%

19.5%

History and runner coverage · 11/14 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins	Wins today
1	14/14	16.1%	22%	3
2	13/14	17.0%	0%	4
3	13/14	18.2%	8%	2
4	11/14	14.1%	25%	2
5	12/14	15.1%	6%	3
6	14/14	19.5%	39%	0

Sheffield11:01 · 12 races · 12 run

19.2%

18.0%

17.5%

17.7%

14.1%

13.6%

History and runner coverage · 8/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins	Wins today
1	12/12	19.2%	19%	1
2	12/12	18.0%	31%	6
3	11/12	17.5%	19%	1
4	12/12	17.7%	20%	2
5	10/12	14.1%	4%	2
6	10/12	13.6%	7%	0

Newcastle11:09 · 12 races · 12 run

16.0%

17.0%

18.5%

16.1%

14.8%

17.6%

History and runner coverage · 9/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins	Wins today
1	12/12	16.0%	8%	1
2	12/12	17.0%	16%	4
3	12/12	18.5%	23%	1
4	12/12	16.1%	24%	0
5	12/12	14.8%	6%	4
6	12/12	17.6%	23%	2

Valley13:49 · 13 races · 10 run

16.5%

17.3%

18.3%

18.5%

11.2%

History and runner coverage · 10/13 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins	Wins today
1	11/13	16.5%	27%	0
2	13/13	17.3%	22%	0
3	13/13	18.3%	14%	5
4	13/13	18.3%	8%	3
5	13/13	18.5%	22%	1
6	8/13	11.2%	7%	1

Romford14:23 · 12 races · 9 run

17.3%

18.7%

16.5%

15.6%

18.2%

13.7%

History and runner coverage · 5/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins	Wins today
1	11/12	17.3%	42%	1
2	11/12	18.7%	30%	0
3	11/12	16.5%	13%	1
4	11/12	15.6%	8%	1
5	12/12	18.2%	3%	2
6	10/12	13.7%	3%	4

Monmore14:31 · 12 races · 8 run

14.1%

20.3%

19.0%

18.1%

10.6%

17.9%

History and runner coverage · 9/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins	Wins today
1	10/12	14.1%	47%	0
2	12/12	20.3%	14%	3
3	12/12	19.0%	18%	1
4	12/12	18.1%	9%	1
5	8/12	10.6%	0%	0
6	12/12	17.9%	11%	3

Towcester18:08 · 12 races

16.5%

18.2%

16.1%

17.8%

16.3%

15.0%

History and runner coverage · 9/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins
1	12/12	16.5%	25%
2	12/12	18.2%	21%
3	12/12	16.1%	17%
4	12/12	17.8%	8%
5	12/12	16.3%	14%
6	12/12	15.0%	15%

Star Pelaw18:11 · 8 races

20.1%

17.9%

16.0%

19.3%

15.8%

10.9%

History and runner coverage · 4/8 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins
1	8/8	20.1%	29%
2	8/8	17.9%	12%
3	7/8	16.0%	24%
4	8/8	19.3%	20%
5	7/8	15.8%	11%
6	5/8	10.9%	4%

Central Park18:14 · 12 races

17.0%

16.9%

16.5%

15.3%

18.9%

15.4%

History and runner coverage · 6/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins
1	12/12	17.0%	10%
2	12/12	16.9%	22%
3	12/12	16.5%	13%
4	11/12	15.3%	18%
5	12/12	18.9%	17%
6	11/12	15.4%	20%

Sunderland18:37 · 12 races

15.8%

16.7%

17.2%

15.8%

16.9%

17.6%

History and runner coverage · 7/12 races modelled

Trap	Runners	Model chance	Past card wins
1	11/12	15.8%	24%
2	12/12	16.7%	11%
3	11/12	17.2%	0%
4	12/12	15.8%	11%
5	12/12	16.9%	24%
6	12/12	17.6%	29%

Yesterday's results

Winners from each trap on every card. "Top trap" had the most winners.

Card	Top trap	T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6
Central Park 12 races	3	3	0	4	0	3	2
Doncaster 12 races	2	1	4	1	2	1	3
Dunstall Park 12 races	1	4	2	2	2	1	1
Harlow 28 races	5	5	5	3	7	8	1
Monmore 12 races	5, 6	1	2	1	2	3	3
Nottingham 12 races	4, 5	2	0	1	4	4	1
Romford 12 races	3, 4	2	2	3	3	1	1
Sunderland 12 races	6	3	1	2	0	2	4
Towcester 12 races	1	4	2	0	2	3	1
Yarmouth 12 races	3, 6	0	2	3	2	2	3